Don’t panic: COVID-19 information updates for Colorado

I wanted to provide you with information about the novel Coronavirus (COVID-19). There is so much information available on the internet, but it is hard to gain a clear perspective on it. For my patients, and person interested  in an integrative approach, I will put some of the copious information on into perspective, and help you develop a good strategy for maintaining your immune system during this time. (I will be sending out a Coronavirus and Winter Virus Protocol via email for my patients).

The virus: You have probably been reading daily reports on the Coronavirus that is sweeping the world. The response to the virus is called COVID-19; the viral strain is called SARS-COV-2 (to distinguish it from the SARS-COV, which occurred in 2002). This virus is new to humanity, and genomic testing tells us it jumped from animals to humans,  from either snakes or bats. Because it is a virus new to humans,  its effects will change and develop over time. Viruses mutate as a natural part of their life cycle. This means that its virulence will change, and some virus experts believe it will become less virulent over time.

Because response to this new virus was slow, it is possible that the virus may recur every year in some form, similar to the influenza.

Spread of the virus: What’s clear now from the virus outbreak in China is that the number of infections has peaked, and are now on the wane there. As the virus spreads, the same process will occur in each country. The U.S. is only now on the upswing in infections. What you are seeing in response is a strong request to self-quarantine in order to limit contact with others and spread the virus. People who test positive to the infection are being quarantined at home.  Large gatherings are being cancelled as well. These are good public health responses to contain the virus. However, the best response would be to be able to test everyone, and identify those people who have the potential to spread the virus.

One of the hallmarks of this virus is that many people who are infected with it are asymptomatic, but can still shed the virus, and that makes containing the infection more difficult. It is also reassuring in that most infected people do not become severely ill.

Testing in Colorado: Testing is still in its early stages, both in the development and efficacy of tests, and the number tests available. As a result, public health officials in Colorado have criteria for who is tested. You can see an up-to-date set of criteria here:

https://www.colorado.gov/pacific/cdphe/covid-19-testing

A general COVID-19 website to watch for Colorado with daily updates is available here:

https://www.colorado.gov/pacific/cdphe/2019-novel-coronavirus

Testing: Biomedical companies are still developing effective coronavirus tests, and then will need to ramp up production. Testing will therefore lag the presence of the virus. Just a reminder: tests are not perfect. Medicine has a way to measure the efficacy so a person with the virus is detected (a true positive), and a person without the virus is detected (a true negative). As the test is developed, the efficacy will improve.

For public health measures, widespread testing is important to understand how virulent this virus is. In countries that have done widespread testing, such as Korea, the death rate is 0.6%. By contrast, the yearly influenza death rate is about 0.1%. While devastating for the families who lose their loved ones, the number is reassuring in that the COVID-19 virus is not that virulent, and this allows it to peak and wane.

Upshot: don’t panic. The virus will peak and then wane. The warming weather, the mutation of the virus, and good public health interventions will contribute to this process.

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